Budget Deficits
WHAT ARE THE short-term and long-term effects of budget deficits? While short-term deficits have often coincided with periods of great economic growth, economists warn against long-term deficits, arguing that they burden the U.S. with more debt, making it harder to cut spending on government programs. NCPA scholars believe rampant spending -- not across-the-board tax cuts -- cause enormous deficits, and the answer to restoring fiscal stability involves cutting spending on discretionary programs, reforming Medicare and Social Security, and keeping taxes low to promote economic growth.
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Budget Deficits
- Why No Focus on Huge Ongoing Debt?
[Investor's Business Daily, May 18, 2009] The Obama budgets flirt with deferred distress, says IBDeditorials. From 2010 to 2019, Obama projects annual deficits totaling $7.1 trillion; that's atop the $1.8 trillion deficit for 2009. By 2019, the ratio of publicly held federal debt to gross domestic product (GDP, or the economy) would reach 70%, up from 41% in 2008. The Congressional Budget Office, using less optimistic economic forecasts, raises these estimates. The 2010-19 deficits would total $9.3 trillion; the debt-to-GDP ratio in 2019 would be 82%.
- Estimate of Budget Deficit is Revised to Surpass $1.8 Trillion
[New York Times, May 12, 2009] The Office of Management and Budget's revised deficit projections bring the expected shortfall this fiscal year, which ends Sept. 30, to $1.84 trillion, from a February projection of $1.75 trillion. For the 2010 fiscal year, the new estimate is $1.26 trillion, up from $1.17 trillion. Even before the revisions, the deficit projections were the highest in more than 60 years, since the end of World War II.
- Budget Passes but Critics Say the Deficit is in the Details
[New York Times, April 30, 2009] Congress gave final approval to its $3.5 trillion federal budget on Wednesday while sidestepping the difficult question of how to pay for it. Democratic backers called it an improvement over the recent economic approach, but Republicans said the Democrats were severely underestimating future deficits because the budget failed to account for costs of a health care overhaul, popular tax breaks and other spending that would drive the deficit much higher.
- Why you'll pay for federal spending cuts
[CNN Money, October 24, 2008] Slashing government spending is certainly a phrase that plays well on the campaign trail. But real spending cuts won't mean fewer school administrators or less environmental red tape. Real cuts mean that you'll have to live with a smaller military, put off your retirement and pay more for your health care
- The Confidence Game
[Wall Street Journal, October 18, 2008] In disclosing plans to buy a quarter-trillion dollars of bank stock in the name of the American taxpayer, Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson harped on confidence. "Today, there is a lack of confidence in our financial system, a lack of confidence that must be conquered," he said on Tuesday.
- A Power That May Not Stay So Super
[NY Times, October 13, 2008] On Friday, as the stock market finished one of its worst weeks by falling yet again, to roughly half of its level just one year ago, the Gallup Poll reported that Americans were substantially more pessimistic about the economy than they have been in more than two decades of polling. Nearly 60 percent say the economy is in poor shape, and 90 percent say it’s still getting worse.
- The Spending Explosion
[Wall Street Journal, September 10, 2008] According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), federal expenditures on everything from roads to homeland security to health care will reach 21.5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) next year. Federal outlays could be higher as a share of the economy than at anytime since World War II, says the Wall Street Journal.
- U.S. Budget Deficit Hit $102.77 Billion in July
[The Wall Street Journal, August 13, 2008] The Treasury Department on Tuesday said the government ran a monthly deficit of $102.77 billion in July, up 182% from $36.45 billion in July 2007.
- No Tax Increase Needed
[Cato Institute, August 7, 2008] The tax increase advocates...argue we must increase taxes to reduce the deficit. The problem again is that tax increases slow economic growth, resulting in diminished growth in the tax base while, at the same time, increasing the pressure for more government spending.
- Obamanomics Is a Recipe for Recession
[The Wall Street Journal, July 29, 2008]From the property rights and rule of (contract) law foundations of a successful market economy to the specifics of tax, spending, energy, regulatory and trade policy, if the proposals espoused by candidate Obama ever became law, the American economy would suffer a serious setback.
- Stimulus, Sagging Economy To Balloon Federal Deficit
[The Wall Street Journal, July 28, 2008] The Office of Management and Budget said it expects next year's budget gap to soar to $482 billion, $75 billion higher than its previous estimate. The deficit for the current fiscal year, which ends Sept. 30, is projected to come in at $389 billion, $21 billion lower than the administration's February forecast.
- CBO's Warning on Raising Taxes to Pay for Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security
[The Heritage Foundation, June 27, 2008]Tax rates would need to be raised by "substantial" amounts to finance projected spending.
- Seeing Recession When There's None to Be Found
[American Enterprise Institute, June 9, 2008] Over the past two quarters, the annualized growth rate was about 0.7 percent, almost double the growth rate of the shallowest recession on record. [But,] negative sentiment might well slow spending enough to give us a textbook recession in the second half of the year.
- Real budget deficit: $4 trillion
[World Net Daily, January 8, 2008] The real 2007 federal budget deficit was $4 trillion, not a previously reported $163 billion, an economist contends, based on data from the Treasury Department's annual financial report.
- For Now, Don't Sweat The Deficits
[Investor's Business Daily, February 4, 2008] The ink isn't even dry, but already the squawking can be heard about President Bush's new five-year budget plan and the "exploding" deficits it contains. As usual, it's much ado about nothing.
- Myths About Recession
[Dallas Morning News, January 28, 2008] Listening to the economic stimulus talk coming out of Washington, you could be forgiven for thinking that the recession is just around the corner. The main result of all this chatter is that far too many myths about recessions have made their way into popular culture.
- Rubinomics R.I.P.
[Wall Street Journal, January 15, 2008] "Rubinomics" is the concept known as "deficit reduction" as growth policy: Lower the federal budget deficit and, as dawn follows night, interest rates will fall and prosperity will break upon the land.
- Bad Policy And A Dangerous Precedent
[Heritage Foundation, November 7, 2007] The Homeowners Defense Act (H.R. 3355) is a dangerous step toward a federal government subsidy of property insurance coverage for natural disasters.
- The Shrinking Deficit
[Wall Street Journal, October 9, 2007] The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has released its preliminary estimates for Fiscal Year 2007 that ended September 30, and the federal budget deficit fell again, this time by 35 percent to $161 billion.
- A War Surtax?
[Wall Street Journal, October 4, 2007] The United States is spending relatively little on defense by historic wartime standards, and that's including the $192 billion in 2007 to fund the efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan.
- Down Goes The Deficit
[Wall Street Journal, July 12, 2007] Red ink in Washington is invariably an excuse for raising taxes, so perhaps falling deficits should be a reason to cut them.
- A How-To Guide to Raising Americans' Taxes
[American Enterprise Institute, May 8, 2007] One of the first acts of the new Democratic-controlled Congress was a return to pay-go. Any proposal to reduce taxes will generally be joined with an offsetting tax increase.
- Federal Aid to the States: Historical Cause of Government Growth and Bureaucracy
[Cato Institute, May 22, 2007] In recent years, members of Congress have inserted thousands of pork-barrel spending projects into bills to reward interests in their home states. But such parochial pork is only a small part of a broader problem of rising federal spending on traditionally state and local activities.
- Deficit Deceptions
[Investor's Business Daily, June 18, 2007] Criticism of President Bush by politicians of all stripes and media of all types for failing to rein in federal spending and letting deficits "soar" is based largely on misconceptions
- Taxpayers On The Hook For $59 Trillion
[USA Today, May 29, 2007] The federal government recorded a $1.3 trillion loss last year -- far more than the official $248 billion deficit -- when corporate-style accounting standards are used.
- Historical Cause of Government Bureaucracy
[Cato Institute, May 22, 2007] In recent years, members of Congress have inserted thousands of pork-barrel spending projects into bills to reward interests in their home states, but this is only a small part of a broader problem of rising federal spending on traditionally state and local activities.
- Tax Increases Ahead: The Impact of the House Budget Resolution, By Congressional District
[Heritage Foundation, May 7, 2007] The House's budget, if implemented, could increase taxes significantly over the next five years, in turn decreasing job growth, reducing personal income, and weakening the economy.
- On U.S. Debt, It's All Quiet On Presidential Campaign Trails
[USA Today, April 25, 2007] The nation, already wallowing in debt, has no plan to cope with the tsunami of new costs that will arrive as baby boomers begin to retire.
- The Coming Tax Increase
[Wall Street Journal, April 5, 2007] Under the cover of zero media attention, Congressional Democrats are constructing a budget process that will make a tax increase all but inevitable.
- Fiscal Irresponsibility
[Heritage Foundation, March 22, 2007] The Senate Democrats, writing their first budget resolution since winning control in Congress last fall, have produced a budget blueprint that is fiscally irresponsible.
- Benefits for Seniors Eating Up Kids' Share
[Urban Institute, March 15, 2007] The spiraling cost of benefits for seniors is limiting the federal government's ability to invest in kids. Despite Democrats' plans to boost spending on education and children's health insurance, the projected $2.9 trillion federal budget's tilt toward older Americans will only increase.
- Don't Mess With Success
[Wall Street Journal, March 15, 2007] Despite campaign promises not to raise taxes, the new Democratic majority's budget fails to keep existing tax policies in place, which amounts to a $900 billion tax hike over five years, the largest tax increase ever.
- The Secret Recipe for High Taxes
[Wall Street Journal, March 14, 2007] The House Democrats' paygo budget rule and a new Senate budget resolution will require that whenever the House or Senate legislatively expand mandatory spending or reduces taxes, the hit to the budget must be offset by a cut in other mandatory spending or an increase in other taxes.
- Reining In Entitlement Costs
[Heritage Foundation, February 5, 2007]The key feature of President Bush's fiscal year 2008 budget requests is the focus on entitlement spending. But Congress should answer with a call to rein in entitlement's looming costs.
- Fiscal Revelation
[Wall Street Journal, February 6, 2007] The big story in the Fiscal 2008 budget that President Bush unveiled is that with a little spending restraint, Congress could balance the budget in no time.
- The "Tax Gap" Myth
[Wall Street Journal, January 30, 2007] Closing the estimated $290 billion tax gap is not the best way to reduce the deficit, despite what many in Congress think.
- A Spending Sham
[OpinionJournal.com, January 24, 2007] The pay-as-you-go, or "paygo" system reinstated by the Democratic Congress is a spending sham that will only lead to bigger government and higher taxes, says Pete du Pont.
- Dodging the Perfect Storm
[Townhall, January 19, 2007] There's a tsunami on the horizon that threatens to bankrupt our children. The "perfect storm" has been created by the convergence of the promises our government has made through the Big Three entitlement programs: Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security.
- Surging Revenues
[Wall Street Journal, January 17, 2007] The myth persists that the federal budget deficit is "surging" or ballooning or something terrible -- giving ammunition to those in Congress who want a tax increase.
- Bush's Call For Fiscal Restraint: Entitlement Control is the Key
[Heritage Foundation, January 5, 2007] If budget proposals, such as the President will soon release, are to lead to real economic benefits for Americans, there must be clarity about the proper strategic goals. That means recognizing the true fiscal threat.
- Number of Federal Subsidy Programs is Soaring
[Cato Institute, November 2006] The proliferation of special interest spending in the federal budget in recent years has created much waste and corruption. Politicians have helped special interests while helping themselves. But the main problem has not been that politicians have their hands in the cookie jar; it is that the cookie jar has grown so large.
- Pelosinomics
[Investor's Business Daily, October 6, 2006] House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi promises to "jump-start our economy and reform our economic policy," but that's exactly what President Bush did in 2003 with his tax cuts.
- Tax Tidal Wave
[Wall Street Journal, October 6, 2006] Congress keeps breaking the Beltway Book of World Records for spending money, but the government will soon report that the federal budget deficit for the just-completed 2006 fiscal year fell to about $260 billion, says the Wall Street Journal.
- Declining Debt
[Wall Street Journal, October 12, 2006] Thanks to a burst of September revenue, Treasury reported that the deficit fell to $247.7 billion, or 1.9 percent of gross domestic product (GDP).
- Tax Tidal Wave
[Wall Street Journal, October 6, 2006] Congress keeps breaking the Beltway Book of World Records for spending money, but the government will soon report that the federal budget deficit for the just-completed 2006 fiscal year fell to about $260 billion, says the Wall Street Journal.
- To End Spending Spree, Congress Must Reform Broken Budget Process
[National Taxpayers Union, Septeber 28, 2006] If Congress is serious about curtailing corruption and rampant overspending, it should look no further than its own flawed budget process, according to a new Policy Paper from the non-partisan National Taxpayers Union (NTU).
- America's Serious Deficits
[Fort Worth Star Telegram, September 21, 2006] Americans should shudder at our fiscally perilous bottom line, says U.S. Comptroller General David Walker.
- Tales from the Crypt
[Wall Street Journal, September 29, 2006] A key assumption for those who believe the U.S. economy will continue to slide as a result of the mounting deficit, is that balancing the national budget is itself a great good, no matter how it's done, says the Wall Street Journal.
- Spending: Dems Still Don't Get It
[Cato Institute, August 31, 2006] With out-of-control federal spending, special-in terest earmarks and deficits projected at nearly $2 trillion over the next decade, it's no surprise why.
- The Greatest Scam Of All Time
[Money and Markets, September 19, 2006] Washington's Enron-style accounting is now so widespread and so deeply ingrained, the nation could be bankrupt and not even know it, says investment writer Martin Weiss.
- Federal Deficit Falling as Economy Climbs
[Heartland Institute, August 2006] Surging tax receipts have caused the federal budget deficit to drop more than 16 percent over the past year, in a period of tax rate cuts and high levels of government spending.
- Pork binge to end with line-item veto
[Townhall, July 2006] One of the issues Democrats have been most vocal about is the sharp increases in the budget deficit. But when they had a chance to strike a blow against wasteful pork projects in the House last month, 156 of them voted for business as usual.
- Unbalanced Agendas, Unbalanced Bugdets
[National Taxpayers Union, August 3, 2006] The White House recently heralded the news that the federal budget deficit receded from a high of $412.7 billion in Fiscal Year 2004 to $296 billion. Taxpayers will likely see this as an improvement, after a lot of hard work happens!
- A Fiscally Irresponsible 109th Congress - Future Prospects
[Townhall, August 10, 2006] Unless there are some spectacular moves in the final month, the 109th Congress will go down in history as one of the least productive, says Townhall's Paul Weyrich.
- Not So Fuzzy Math
[TCS Daily, July 14, 2006] What do these budget results really mean?
- Irrational Policymaking in the U.S. Congress and What Can Be Done About It
[Cato Institute, July 26, 2006] Many Americans are disappointed by the huge amounts of money Congress spends, but that's not the real problem. The real problem is the profoundly irrational system Congress uses to decide how much to spend.
- What's The Real Federal Deficit?
[USA Today, August 3, 2006] A growing number of Congress members and accounting experts say it's time for Congress to start using audited financial statements (produced by the government's accountants following standard accounting rules) when making budget decisions.
- Empowering Citizens to Monitor Federal Spending
[Cato Institute, July 2006] The federal government purchases about $500 billion of goods and services each year; it also hands out about $500 billion each year in grants. Much of this spending makes little economic sense, and some of it simply represents taxpayer-funded gifts to favored special interests.
- Privatization and Devolution Keys to Solving Federal Budget Mess
[Reason, July 19, 2006] Taxing is not the answer to solving the federal budget mess; rather, a serious effort at privatization and devolution of federal assets and programs is needed, says Geoffrey Segal of Reason.
- Observations on Budget Estimates from the Mid-Session Review
[Heritage Foundation, July 11, 2006] While the rapid increase in federal revenues shows that the 2003 tax cuts have succeeded, continued runaway spending threatens America’s fiscal and economic future.
- Bush Turns More into Less: The Tax-Driven Deficit Reduction
[AEI, July 18, 2006] Unfortunately, the deficit reduction cannot be attributed to any spending cuts by the president...or even a modicum of spending restraint, says Veronique de Rugy of AEI.
- State and Local Government Debt is Soaring
[Cato Institute, July 2006] Citizens need to remember that government debt simply represents deferred taxes and charges, and they will have to bear the burden sooner or later.
- Refining the Federal Budget
[Heritage Foundation, June 22, 2006] According to the Heritage Foundation, the federal government spent $2.5 trillion in 2005, nearly 33 percent more than it spent in 2001; however, the bigger concern is that Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid spending will explode when the baby boomers retire.
- CBO's Budget Outlook
[Congressional Budget Office, January 2006] CBO projects that if the current laws and policies remain the same, the federal government would run a deficit of $337 billion in 2006.
- Don't Spend, Amend
[Wall Street Journal, October 24, 2005] "It's time to write budgetary discipline into the Constitution," says NCPA Chairman Pete du Pont
- Why the Budget Deficit Should Not Stop Tax Reform
[Heritage Foundation, October 19, 2004] The President’s commitment to tax reform has many reform activists excited, but the inclusion of the term “revenue-neutral” in the agenda should give them pause.
- Study: Trend to Spend Still Shaping Congressional Agendas
[National Taxpayers Union Foundation, October 7, 2004] Almost a decade has passed since the political revolution that changed party control of Congress, but what happened to the fiscal revolution that was supposed to follow?
- Budget Deficit $56 Billion Less than Previously Projected
[Joint Economic Committee, September 7, 2004] Higher than anticipated inflow of revenues into federal coffers has changed CBO's budget outlook for 2004
- Downsizing the Federal Government
[Cato Institute, June 2, 2004] Chronic overspending, large deficits, and the growing future costs of Medicare and Social Security are leading the federal government into a financial crisis.
- What Is the Real Reason to Worry about the Deficit?
[PowerPoint, Heritage Foundation, June 8, 2004] A Powerpoint presentation shown at a joint Heritage/Brookings event on federal spending showcases Stuart Butler's argument that reigning in entitlements is more important than tax hikes to balance the budget.
- Raising Taxes
[NCPA, October 29, 2003] The stars are aligning for a tax increase, says Bruce Bartlett.
- Deficits and Tax Cuts
[NCPA, October 20, 2003] Despite improving economic and budgetary news, there is rising pressure to do something about the budget deficit, says Bruce Bartlett.
- The Real Cost of Future Deficits
[NCPA, June 9, 2003] Raising taxes or rescinding recent tax cuts will not eliminate the nation's long-term debt.
- Bias Against Tax Cuts
[NCPA, June 2, 2003] All the liberal warnings about how tax cuts would be dangerously inflationary went right down the memory hole. Because deficits went up, the Reagan tax cut failed in the liberal worldview, says Bruce Bartlett.